SPECIAL EDITION: Is The Low In for the S&P 500?

When market flow meets seasonality statistics.

A Word From Danny Riley 

The S&P futures have rallied 8.5% or 309 points from the June 17 low to the June 27 high — a span of just six trading sessions — causing many traders to ask, “is the bottom in?”

If you’re an optimist at heart and think the worst has passed, you more than likely think the bottom is in. If you’re a constant pessimist (not a lot of heart there), you’re more than likely to think the S&P is having another dead-cat bounce. So, which is it?

I remember being at my S&P 500 futures and options desk the day the S&P made its 666 cash low during the Credit Crisis. That day, I picked up several of the direct lines to the banks and hedge funds and told them I thought the low was in. Long story short, about 100 to 150 points higher I was saying that I thought it was going back down. While my main job was making sure the brokers in the pit were not front running my desk orders, I was also the guy that the big accounts would come to when they wanted to get a feel for what was going on. 

I think the Opening Print has done exactly what it was set out to do — providing a feeling for the market, exactly like I did for some of the largest accounts in the world. It's one thing to bullshit a small retail account, but that does not happen at the institutional level.  

So back to the question, is the low in?